6th October 2025:

Overall, this quarter was very promising. 700k+ views later, 400% later on $LEDGER, and after 100% on $ETH and $20% on $BTC, things are indeed shaping up very nicely. Based on our “macro top checking” analyses we’ve done roughly every week or so for the past few months, the top is still far from in, with stablecoin dominance charts still looking extremely bearish on HTF (they’re both breaking down from rising wedge patterns right now actually).

Macro conditions are actually really interesting right now. US10Y chart is bullish for the first time in ~40 years, and the US10Y-US02Y was recently inverted for 2 years, the longest in a long time (ever?), and every time this happens there’s been a recession and major world events right after. We can unfortunately expect this from now onwards for a few years. So be prepared in all sense of the phrase. It all makes sense given that metals and commodities look as though they’re going to outperform equities (S&P500 etc) now onwards (they already have been). This usually happens during times of “need” and it seems for the past couple years they’ve been pricing in what’s coming.

I’ve learnt that what matters most are ratio charts. A chart itself may look bullish, but if you overlay it with something else, you may notice it’s been underperforming and in decline relative to that asset. For example, the Nasdaq itself is at new ATHs and looks great. But the ratio chart versus gold shows that it’s actually broken down from a decade long rising trendline. Similar patterns are shown when comparing gold to other equities.

My plan is to ride the equities market as much / as high as I can, essentially just in crypto, which is my main area of expertise. I’ll de-risk as assets go up, and then I’ll hold stablecoins/cash until I’m ready to deploy into real world hard, defensive assets like smart real estate, metals, commodities, and cash-flowing evergreen businesses (private equity). Until then, let’s maximise this euphoric AI and liquidity craze that seem to be the main narratives for the coming years. As always though, (ratio) charts are king, and they’re foreshadowing what’s coming in the future.

Lots to discuss, but honestly, I’m still learning a lot, and I’d rather mainly be an observer for now than a teacher. I’ll do that when I’m more confident and timing is better. But for now, enjoy all the content I make on my Twitter (X) and my Telegram Channel. Also follow me on IG for fun.

-Thanks, Drae. @drae_drae22